IPEP-C 2026.2 – Producer Export Participation Index – Conilon Coffee

The Conilon Coffee Producer Export Participation Index (IPEP-C) for the 2025/26 crop year stood at 93.0%, confirming the strong integration between Brazil’s domestic Conilon coffee market and international markets throughout one of the highest-priced periods in the history of the coffee industry.

During the crop year, the average FOB price of Brazilian Conilon coffee exports reached US$244.54 per bag, while the average domestic Conilon coffee price stood at US$219.29 per bag. The three-month weighted moving average reached US$228.63 per bag, resulting in an IPEP-C of 93.0%.

The evolution of the index throughout the crop year illustrates market dynamics. The first half of 2025 reflected an environment of severe supply shortages, with the domestic market paying prices above export prices on several occasions. Beginning in the second quarter of 2025, which marked the start of the crop year, export prices began to outpace domestic prices, causing the IPEP-C to remain below 100% for virtually the entire remainder of the crop year.

For the crop year as a whole, the average differential of just 7% was insufficient to fully offset export-related costs such as freight, warehousing, port expenses, certifications, financing costs, foreign exchange risk, and the longer payment terms inherent in international transactions. This reflects an exceptionally active domestic market with a strong capacity to absorb Brazil’s Conilon coffee production.

Another noteworthy aspect was the absolute price level observed throughout the crop year. Regardless of the comparison between domestic and international markets, Brazilian Conilon coffee traded at average prices slightly below those recorded at the beginning of 2025, yet still among the highest levels of the past several decades. Both FOB prices and domestic quotations remained at historically elevated levels, reflecting constrained supply, firm demand, and low inventories across the world’s leading producer and consumer countries.

This scenario represented an important structural shift for the Conilon coffee sector. After many years characterized by relatively low prices and narrow margins, the 2025/26 crop year established a pricing environment well above historical norms. Record prices encouraged new investment in coffee plantations, supported the recovery of producer profitability, and reinforced the growing importance of Brazilian Conilon coffee in global coffee supply.

The IPEP-C therefore demonstrates that Brazil’s domestic market efficiently reflected international price appreciation. At the same time, the 2025/26 crop year will be remembered as one of the most profitable in the recent history of Brazilian coffee production, consolidating a sustained high-price environment for Conilon coffee and reaffirming the competitiveness of Brazilian Conilon coffee in both domestic and export markets

METHODOLOGY

Domestic prices are based on the price series published by CEPEA (Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics at ESALQ).

Using the monthly average CEPEA price, expressed in U.S. dollars, a three-month weighted average of the domestic market price (P) is calculated, according to the following formula:

P = (Price in month p × 0.2) + (p-1 × 0.5) + (p-2 × 0.3)

Where p−1 and p−2 correspond to prices observed in the two preceding months. This formulation accounts for the time lag typically observed between contract pricing and shipment, as exports in the current month are generally contracted or priced one to two months in advance. The IPEP-C is then calculated by dividing the weighted price (P) by the average FOB price.